2024 Paris Olympics: Full Bracket-Style Predictions for Men's Basketball Quarterfinal (2024)

Group play is behind us, and the field is now set for the knockout round of the men's basketball tournament at the 2024 Paris Olympics.

USA, Canada, Serbia, Germany, France, Australia, Greece and Brazil are the eight countries left, and their first-round matchups can be found below.

Now that we know who's playing who, it's time to predict how each of those four contests will go.

Germany is a fairly heavy favorite to advance past the first round, but Greece can absolutely win this game.

It has Giannis Antetokounmpo, the best individual player from either side. And if he has a monster, two-way performance, he can carry Greece to the upset.

But with apologies to Nick Calathes and Thomas Walkup, there's a pretty significant dropoff in talent from Giannis to the rest of Greece's roster, and it'll be overwhelmed by Germany's combination of depth and starpower.

Starting with the former, Germany has gotten solid play inside from Moritz Wagner throughout this tournament. His ceaseless energy has made Germany a nightmare throughout group play.

Daniel Theis and Isaac Bonga have both been good, as well. Theis has never gotten a ton of credit for his rim protection, but he's typically in the right spots on defense and is an opportunistic scorer. Bonga's length and athleticism have been even more dangerous with his three-point shot falling. Both are averaging double-figures.

But the biggest reasons Germany should win in the first round and is a real threat to win it all are Franz Wagner (21.7 points, 5.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.0 blocks in group play) and Dennis Schröder (19.7 points and 9.0 assists).

Those two have been two of the best perimeter players in the entire tournament, and Greece simply doesn't have the defensive stoppers necessary to slow them down.

Australia was a bit underwhelming in group play, but they were in the so-called "group of death" with Canada, Greece and Spain. And they have more total NBA players then Serbia.

Of course, you can't predict the outcome of a game on that. Outside of the non-Nikola Jokić minutes against Team USA, Serbia's continuity has looked about as strong as any team at the Olympics. And the outcomes of individual contests often come down to individual matchups.

No one in the field, including and maybe especially Australia, has a good matchup for Jokić (who averaged 18.7 points, 11.0 rebounds, 7.0 assists and 2.0 steals in group play).

Jock Landale has had a good tournament (17.7 points, 9.7 rebounds and 3.3 assists), and his aggressive, physical defense could make Jokić uncomfortable, but not to the degree he won't be the best player in this matchup.

It's hard to imagine Australia winning the minutes when Jokić is in the game, and now that we're in the knockout phase, his minutes total should be pretty high.

If Serbia gets even a decent game from Bogdan Bogdanović (who had 30 against South Sudan on Saturday and actually led the team in scoring during group play at 19.0 points per game), it should make it to the second round.

Canada went undefeated in the "group of death" and has one of the best individual players in the tournament in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but this matchup has the potential to be the best in the first round (despite each of the preceding games having plenty of entertainment potential, too).

Canada finished group play in last place in threes per game and fourth in points per game, which of course means they did a lot of damage inside and at the free-throw line. And France's back line, which includes the top two finishers in NBA Defensive Player of the Year in Rudy Gobert and Victor Wembanyama, will almost certainly make it more difficult for Canada to finish in the paint.

Beyond that, though, it starts to get pretty tough to find obvious advantages for France.

Canada has the best player in SGA. It has multiple other NBA guards and wings in Andrew Nembhard, Jamal Murray and RJ Barrett to potentially break down an underwhelming French perimeter defense. It has a long, switchy defense to make life difficult on the French guards, too.

Certainly, a superstar performance from Wembanyama or a hot shooting night from Evan Fournier could change the outcome, but Canada should probably advance.

Brazil deserves some love for getting to the knockout round. It was far from a given to make it here, but its run will almost certainly be over after playing Team USA.

The Brazilians' best player is Bruno Caboclo, who last played in the NBA in 2020-21 and had a career average of 4.2 points there.

Team USA, meanwhile, boasts multiple future Hall of Famers, including LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant.

It went 3-0 in group play, which included a dominant win over Jokić's Serbian side. It led group play in point differential. It has the deepest collection of scoring talent, playmaking talent and defense.

The only real question about this game is whether the Americans will win by more than that gaudy 27.5-point line.